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孫同天院士演講第一部份簡單心得分享

孫院士會開設這個workshop是從2001年開始,有感於現今對於學子的科學教育相
                                                                               
當不足,而學子們也無法使用科學的態度與觀點來面對處理事務,所以才開設這樣
                                                                               
的課程。這樣的開設之後在NYU大受好評,後來也漸漸推廣到其他在NY的學校如
                                                                               
Rockefeller or Columbia University。聽老闆說,孫院士的這個課程還有得過獎項。
                                                                                 
                                                                                
我想要與大家簡單分享的是這個workshop的第一部份,也是我印象最深,覺得最精彩
                                                                                
的部分。 
 
 
演講一開始就以三個現實生活中常聽到的puzzle作為引題:
                                                                                 
                                                                                
「我詳細的跟著這個老師指示進出,一個指示都不放過。甚至還著跟他在同一個
                                                                                
  時間下單,但是為什麼我還是賺不到錢?我白白花了三個月的時間與會費還賠了錢,
                                                                                
  我覺得我很沮喪。」
                                                                                
                                                                               
「x林的程姐在這個時間大力叫進,但花x的谷彼得卻是叫出。阿育在電視上說
                                                                                
  要大家快放空大崩盤快來了,但是朱社長卻又說台股長線上看兩萬點,
                                                                                
  到底我該相信誰?」
                                                                                
                                                                               
「我覺得很挫折,因為我買的股票大部分都不漲,挑了五檔股票只有一檔是上漲的,
                                                                                
  有的不上漲還反而下跌。我只好更努力的買進更多的股票,結果情況仍是一樣,
                                                                                
  挑了十檔股票只有兩檔上漲,我不知道該怎麼辦。」
 
 
這是生活中常見的股票族、菜籃族所經常掛在嘴邊抱怨的事情。
                                                                               
而為了要拯救股民永不翻身、總是被大戶宰殺的命運,
                                                                               
孫院士提出了以下建議:
                                                                                                                                                               
1. Risk assessment
                                                                               
要自問How much can I afford to make (potentially preventable) mistake?
                                                                               
任何的投資書籍與課本都強調風險的重要性,任何的投資都要規避風險、減少失誤才
                                                                               
能夠獲得長期且穩定的報酬。
                                                                               
孫院士提到風險要怎麼評估,我們並不需要如同financial engineer一般要
                                                                               
meseaure or model risk,他提出了一個簡單的想法:
                                                                               
對於這筆即將要投出的投資,金額到底大或小,佔所有資金部位的比率是多少?
                                                                                
若是這是一個大投資,則需要more careful,
 
但是這是一個僅佔百分之一或是千分之一的小投資,則可以sloppy一點,
                                                                                
另外這個投出的金額會被綁死多久?
                                                                                
若是投出去的部分很好變現,如股票、期貨、定存等等,那可以不用那麼careful,
                                                                                
但若是這個部位很不好變現,或是限制性的長期投資,如房地產或是需兩三年後才
                                                                                
能贖回的基金,那這個時候投資人則需要更謹慎小心。
                                                                               
                                                                               
2. Don't blind trust in authorities
                                                                                                                                
千萬不可以盲目的相信權威。孫院士引用胡適之的話「要在不疑處有疑」來勉勵投資
                                                                               
大眾。現在的投資資訊充斥整個市場,並非有著顯赫頭銜的投資老手或是分析師
                                                                               
或者是投顧公司所印製看似精美講的頭頭是道的月刊季刊就一定對。
                                                                               
在其中可能有許許多多的盲點。
                                                                               
所以在做投資決策的時候該怎麼辦?
 
孫院士也是認為該因大小因時間長短置宜。
                                                                               
假設這是個小部位、投資時間短的,或許可以利用市場的資訊不對稱性,
                                                                               
快進快出,獲得報酬。縱使這是個假的情報,也會有比自己消息更不靈通的傻子
                                                                               
等著接自己手上出脫的部位。
                                                                               
但若是這是個大部位、投資時間非常長的,在做投資決策的時候則是要對每個情報來源
                                                                               
細細推敲,並且比對所能獲得的每一種情報,而理出最可信的資訊來做出決策。
                                                                               
孫院士說,若是這只是一個小投資,你可以隨便相信任何人,射飛鏢都行。
                                                                               
但若是這是一個大的投資,你只能相信你自己。
                                                                               
                                                                               
但若是遇到那種僅有一次,不許失敗的投資情況的時候該怎麼辦?
                                                                               
(譬如說Google在未上市的時候,兩個年輕人一個叫布林一個叫佩奇上門來兜售這家
                                                                               
怪公司的股票,要你傾家蕩產買下它)
 
   
此時,投資的態度就是很重要的。
                                                                               
投資人必須要培養自己的投資態度,孫院士舉出幾個要點如下:
                                                                               
Detailed planing:需要對於整個投資決策有詳盡的計畫,在每個環節都要面面俱到。
                                                                               
Thorough understaning every step:
                                                                               
必須要詳細瞭解這個投資決策的每個邏輯性,孫院士並且建議可以做一個
                                                                               
詳細的desicion tree,來幫助投資人思考每個投資的邏輯性。
                                                                               
"Truth emerges more readily from erreos than from confusions"
                                                                               
Foresee problems:需要有遠見洞燭機先來防範未來可能發生的問題。
                                                                               
                                                                               
但孫院士也強調,如此的投資態度是需要長期培養的,並不能一蹴可幾。
                                                                               
                                                                               
後來孫院士在請大家回顧一開始的三個puzzle,現在看看是不是能夠
                                                                               
diagnosis of the problem and give some constructive suggestion。
 
 
最後孫院士以法國哲學家Bacon的一句話作為收尾,結束了第一場兩個小時的演講。
                                                                               
"If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will
                                                                               
 be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties."







---

haha, just kidding
 
整個backbone幾乎相同,只要把invest or trade改成做研究、做實驗
 
買房地產=做KO mouse,買股票=抽DNA做PCR
                                                                               
把股票族、菜籃族投資人改成科學家
                                                                               
desicion tree改成Notebook
                                                                               
就是他今天講的。


今天看到佳霈真該問問她到底打算MSN封鎖我多久XD?
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