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胡言亂語---FED降息以後

回顧我的上一篇文章,剛好是在那個谷底寫的,
                                                                               
不怕死的我,自是被許多人奚落了一番。
                                                                               
只是,相較於當初每個投資人戒慎恐懼的心理,現在的指數又逼近了前波高點,
                                                                               
到底又是該用怎樣的心態來面對?
                                                                                
                                                                               
我對大盤維持一貫的看法,台股一定上萬點。
                                                                               
但是萬點不太容易一次就被攻破,
                                                                               
縱使攻破了也是站不穩。
                                                                                
                                                                               
從八月中旬以來,發生的大事最精彩的就屬美國聯準會降息。
                                                                               
新任的主席Ben Bernanke長的方頭大耳,眼睛炯炯有神,
                                                                               
整個style與前任主席Alan Greenspan的深沈老練截然不同。
                                                                               
於是Bernanke一開始的態度打算讓次級房貸風暴回歸自由市場機制,
 
不打算讓聯準會過度插手。
                                                                               
但後來仍在九月中旬宣布降息,而且一次降兩碼至4.75%,顯示其決心。
                                                                                
                                                                               
而台股也在幾日之後開始反應,
                                                                               
從9/21的大漲122點,開始連續跳空,
                                                                               
9/26,152點,9/27又漲了156點。
                                                                               
隨後一路向上,到了最近的高點是在10/3號的9783點,已經進逼前波高點9803。
                                                                                
                                                                               
FED的降息指出了些許的投資方向,
                                                                               
首先是美元的走弱,美元指數呈現長期的空頭排列。
                                                                               
這一點許多投資大師與前輩先進,已是高瞻遠矚,甚至早就大賺一票。
                                                                               
就不再贅述。
                                                                               
但是美元流出之後,則活絡了歐元、亞洲、及新興市場,這也是肯定的。
 
 
在十月一號出刊的第562期今週刊的老謝開講,
                                                                               
提到了我在上一篇文章中所闡述的,
                                                                               
墨西哥電訊業大亨史林(Carlos Slim Helu)取代了Bill Gates成為全球首富,
                                                                               
老謝並認為長期的發展來看,新興市場將是財富成長的重要來源。
                                                                                
                                                                               
在觀察個股的變動,發現了一個有趣的情形。
                                                                               
大盤從8/17的7987到上週五收盤20.4%
                                                                               
台積電從8/17的最低點58.6,到上禮拜五收盤64.6,上漲了10.23%
                                                                               
廣達從8/17的最低點50.2,到上禮拜五收盤51.4,上漲2.3%
                                                                               
華碩從81.6到98.5上漲20.7%,鴻海還原權值則是上漲24.22%
                                                                               
這些傳統電子大廠的漲幅在這波大盤一千六百多點的上漲中,
                                                                               
最多僅是略勝大盤,甚至還遜於大盤。
 
    
但相較於電子大廠,中國概念股,更精準地來說是中國收成股族群,
                                                                               
則是支撐大盤上漲的主要動力之一。
                                                                               
如食品大廠統一從26.9漲至50.4,台泥從34.85漲至50.1
                                                                               
通路商聯強從64.2漲至85,輪胎廠正新從51.2漲至70.9
                                                                               
這些股票漲幅都遠勝過大盤。
                                                                                
                                                                               
從這裡我們或許可以勾勒出一個新的面貌。
                                                                               
美國聯準會的降息代表著美國對於經濟景氣的擔憂,
                                                                               
而對於景氣的憂慮也反應到了以美國人為主要消費主力的電子大廠之上,
                                                                               
造成這些族群的股價受到壓抑。
                                                                               
相對的,在新興市場為主的消費則逐漸抬頭,
                                                                                
也造成了中國收成股的股價飛揚。
 
 
未來聯準會是否繼續降息,我不清楚。
                                                                               
我不是經濟學家,這個問題拿去問Bernanke會比較準。
                                                                               
只是短期來看,我想美元的弱勢仍會持續,
                                                                               
而這也想必牽動了台股投資板塊的變化。
                                                                                
                                                                               
胡言亂語一番,
                                                                               
僅博君一笑。
 
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