關於部落格
本部落格文章歡迎轉錄,請註明出處且請不要任意刪改,以免訛傳。
  • 75157

    累積人氣

  • 9

    今日人氣

    4

    追蹤人氣

胡言亂語:我是死多頭

板上已經一改一個月前強力看多的風氣,
                                                                               
看萬點的人數遽減,縱使有,喊盤力道也弱了許多。
                                                                               
相較於此,下看六七千點的人數大增,更有人下看四五千點。
                                                                               
股市走空的言論開始發酵,「逢高減碼,別亂摸底」成為本月板上討論的主流。
                                                                                
                                                                               
不過,我是個標準的死多頭。
                                                                                
                                                                               
其實股市跌到現在,很多人都很心慌慌,包括我也不例外。
                                                                               
對此,
                                                                               
我想嘗試去問一個最基本的問題,
                                                                               
若是股價指數最終是反映經濟景氣的指標,那麼現今或是未來半年的景氣,
                                                                               
究竟會是更好或是更不好?
 
 
讓我們回顧一下先前的指數,
                                                                               
離現今指數的最近的兩個波段指數高點分別是在2006五月的7476,
                                                                               
那次因為五月股災有三個月的下跌到最低點6232。
                                                                               
另外一次則是在2004年三月的7135,當次則是因為隨著總統大選結束而開始走跌,
                                                                               
開始五個月的下跌至低點5255。
                                                                                
                                                                               
現在有許多聲音喊出要下看7600,或是7200,
                                                                               
對照以往的指數,
                                                                               
明年總統大選時的景氣,也就是半年後(假設股價指數領先景氣半年)
                                                                               
應該是回到一年前的經濟情況,甚至是三年前的經濟情形。
                                                                                
                                                                               
只是,
 
我想請各位去感覺、去體會,捫心自問:
                                                                               
現在到未來半年的景氣,已經或即將衰退到三年前的光景了嗎?
                                                                               
我不知道各位的感覺如何,
                                                                               
就我而言,我並不覺得。
                                                                               
不敢說每個人的生活有變好,但是現在的景氣真的變得比三年前,甚至是比一年前還好。
                                                                               
報章雜誌上充斥著精美的預售屋廣告,
                                                                               
101的跨年煙火一年比一年華麗,
                                                                               
富豪與名模翩翩起舞,
                                                                               
這是與三年前台灣社會還陷在「砰砰」謎團裡時的社會紛擾所不能比擬的。
                                                                                
                                                                               
最近有則新聞引起了我的注意。
                                                                               
報導指出美洲移動、墨西哥電信的董事長史林(Carlos Slim Helu)取代了Bill Gates
 
登上了世界首富之位。
                                                                               
雖然富豪排名與資產計算的方式眾多,
                                                                               
世界首富的位置是否真的換人做做看尚不得而知,
                                                                               
不過新興市場經濟力量的崛起由此可見一斑。
                                                                               
在歐美等成熟經濟體受到次級房貸的困擾,左支右絀的同時,
                                                                               
新興市場的經濟發展與消費成長仍持續進行,
                                                                               
但在悲觀的言論中很容易將這塊近年來興起並為許多公司重要獲利來源的重要一角
                                                                               
所遺忘。
                                                                                
                                                                               
況且明年2008年尚有北京奧運,2010年有上海世界博覽會與南非的世界盃足球賽,
                                                                               
這均是帶動新興市場,甚至是全球經濟持續成長的動力之一。
                                                                                
                                                                               
至於台股,
 
我仍堅信台股會上萬點,但不會是在最近。
                                                                               
不過有許多股票已經物美價廉。
                                                                               
或許仍有低點,而且機率頗大。
                                                                               
但現在我會想開始小量買進,
                                                                               
買黑不買紅,越跌越買。
                                                                               
雖然不知道所謂的最低點在哪裡,但是我覺得東西夠便宜就買,
                                                                               
就跟日常生活中購物一樣。
                                                                                
                                                                               
胡言亂語一番,博君一笑,
                                                                               
謝謝收看。
相簿設定
標籤設定
相簿狀態