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胡言亂語3:反彈的下一步

先看看ptt股票板上的反應。
                                                                               
在殺下來一千點的過程中,有人憎恨主力大戶為什麼要下手那麼狠,
                                                                               
有的人宣布要退出股票市場,
                                                                               
但是有的人卻歡欣鼓舞,要大家快點賣好撿便宜。
                                                                               
還是有的人看好要台股上萬點,只是聲音都小了很多。
                                                                               
這也反映了現在台股的處境,在低檔震盪。
                                                                                
                                                                               
只是,從高點西哩呼嚕的在短短的幾個交易日中,跌了一千點,
                                                                               
總該有個比較像樣的反彈吧?
                                                                               
這件事每位股民都在問,套牢的要等反彈解套,
                                                                               
手上還有子彈的希望靠這波反彈波再賺一筆。
                                                                               
根據我多年來在股票市場打滾的經驗,
 
越多人所期盼的,就越不會來。
                                                                                
                                                                               
股票市場有股控制市場漲跌的神秘力量。
                                                                               
一般人叫它主力大戶,
                                                                               
Adam Smith叫它invisible hand,
                                                                               
George Orwell叫它Big brother,
                                                                               
萬寶黃清照叫它有心人士。
                                                                               
大家都知道它的存在,卻沒有人看過它。
                                                                                
                                                                               
神秘的主力大戶心裡在想什麼,沒有人知道。
                                                                               
我們只知道的是,他透過了旗下的分析師放話,
                                                                               
說「台股要反彈了」,並且用一些高級的,令人看不懂的技術分析,
                                                                               
來證明,台股跌了一千點,反彈二分之一大概是五百點,
 
8727+500=9227,剛好也是套牢區,9200-9300左右。
                                                                               
所以全部的人都知道,9200-9300要賣股票,然後就又會反轉向下。
                                                                               
只是,全部的人都要賣股票,那誰要來買?
                                                                                
                                                                               
我一直看好台股會上萬點,只是不會在最近。
                                                                               
假設主力大戶要讓指數上萬點的話,他會怎麼做?
                                                                               
首先,我們得先認知到,一萬點是台灣股票市場最強也是最大的心理關卡所在,
                                                                               
遠勝過先前的任何整數關卡,重要性逼近台股十年線。
                                                                               
所以先問第一個問題,要攻萬點,一次攻的過去嗎?
                                                                               
大家都知道,一定不行。得來來回回攻幾次,把一些見好就收的籌碼吸納之後,
                                                                               
才有繼續上攻的本錢。
                                                                               
所以要怎麼辦?這面對一個兩難的局面,
 
一下子殺太多,上檔套太多,指數走起來會步履蹣跚,難攻。
                                                                               
可能會趕不上今年年底的選舉。
                                                                               
但是殺太少,大家都不肯賣,尤其那些翻臉如翻書的融資戶死賴著不走,
                                                                               
一上攻他們又第一個賣股票,一樣難攻。
                                                                               
所以我以我淺薄的知識來猜測偉大的主力大戶的作法,
                                                                               
可能有二,
                                                                               
一是急跌,跌到大家都哭爹喊娘之後,然後就像昨天(8/8)一樣,
                                                                               
在大家信心盡失,又把注意力放到其他海外資產的時候,開始狂拉。
                                                                               
另一則是在季線附近盤,盤阿盤的讓籌碼換手,讓賴著不走的融資繳利息繳爽了,
                                                                               
大家成本通通都墊高到九千點左右時,再一舉進攻,
                                                                               
那時大家都在同一條船上,不管散戶大戶都只能繼續往萬點衝。
 
  
至於現在呢?
                                                                               
沒人知道主力大戶在想什麼,只能知道反彈應該來了,
                                                                               
但是一下子要看到萬點的機會並不高。
                                                                               
是多是空還沒表態,要選股票還是選些安全點的才好。
                                                                                 
                                                                                 
胡言亂語一番,博君一笑,
                                                                               
謝謝收看。

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